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Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds

Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat …

Will this umbrella leak? A caribou umbrella index for boreal landbird conservation

Conservation approaches that efficiently protect multiple values, such as the umbrella species concept, have been widely promoted with expected dramatic ecosystem changes. Due to its social and cultural importance, and recent declining trends, boreal …

Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by …

Empowering ecological modellers with a PERFICT workflow: Seamlessly linking data, parameterisation, prediction, validation and visualisation

1. Modelling is widely used in ecology and its utility continues to increase as scientists, managers and policy-makers face pressure to effectively manage ecosystems and meet conservation goals with limited resources. As the urgency to forecast …

Managing forest carbon and landscape capacities

Widespread impacts of a warming planet are fuelling climate change mitigation efforts world-wide. Decision makers are turning to forests, the largest terrestrial primary producer, as a nature-based contribution to mitigation efforts. Resource-based …

Predictive Ecology: a re-imagined foundation and the tools for ecological models

Making predictions from ecological models—and comparing them to data—offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, …

Assessing the pathways of climate change effects in SpaDES: an application with boreal landbirds in Northwestern Canada

Distributions of landbirds in Canadian northern forests are expected to be affected by climate change, but it remains unclear which pathways are responsible for projected climate effects. Determining whether climate change acts indirectly through …

The R toolbox grainscape for modelling and visualizing landscape connectivity using spatially explicit networks

Networks are widely used for modelling landscape connectivity and have many ecological and conservation applications. The nodes in these models describe geographic locations (such as habitat patches or protected areas) and links describe the …

NetLogoR: A package to build and run spatially explicit agent-based models in R

NetLogoR is an R package to build and run spatially explicit agent-based models (SE-ABMs) using the R language. SE-ABMs are models that simulate the fate of entities at the individual level within a spatial context and where patterns emerge at the …

State-dependent domicile leaving rates in Anopheles gambiae

Background Transmission of Plasmodium greatly depends on the foraging behaviour of its mosquito vector (Anopheles spp.). The accessibility of blood hosts and availability of plant sugar (i.e., nectar) sources, together with mosquito energy state, …